Liverpool vs Athletic Bilbao – Deep Analysis (Aug 4, 2025)
Venue: Anfield | Format: Double-header | Kick-offs: 17:00 & 20:00 BST
🧠 Match Overview
Friendly double-header. Two separate squads per team. Liverpool use this for final pre-season assessments before Community Shield.
🔧 Team Form & Squad News
- Liverpool: Strong pre-season, but defense showed vulnerability. No Alisson, Gomez, Chiesa.
- Athletic: Missing CBs Egiluz and Paredes; youth defenders promoted. Poor form (3 losses).
📐 Tactical Breakdown
- Liverpool: 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 under Arne Slot. Wide pressure, fluid attack, strong depth. Salah, Wirtz, Gakpo to lead.
- Athletic: Likely 4-3-3, but defense vulnerable. Heavy reliance on Williams brothers. Pressing unlikely.
📊 Probability Model
| Outcome | Probability | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool Win | 80% | Home, quality depth, form |
| Draw | 8% | Only via heavy rotation scenario |
| Athletic Win | 12% | Surprise only, underdog odds |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 65% | High-scoring trend in LFC games |
| BTTS | 55% | If Iñaki/Nico Williams play |
🎯 Key Players
- Iñaki Williams: Main striker for Athletic; dangerous in space and transitions.
- Nico Williams: Pacy winger; Euro 2024 standout. Threat from wide areas.
- Daniel Vivian: Sole senior CB; pressure point vs LFC attack.
- Florian Wirtz: Likely creator for Liverpool; central to buildup.
🏁 Summary & Betting Tips
Liverpool’s tactical and roster superiority makes them clear favorites in both matches. Athletic’s youth defense is a structural risk. Goals expected, especially in the first match.
💸 Recommended Bets
- Liverpool to win both matches
- Over 3.5 total goals per match
- Liverpool over 2.5 team goals
- BTTS if Athletic start Williams brothers
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