Match Preview: Fenerbahçe host Benfica in a high-voltage first leg at Kadıköy. Expect early home pressure, disciplined Benfica control, and a live set-piece battle.
Picks: BTTS — Yes; Benfica (0) DNB.
⚡ Fenerbahçe vs Benfica — UCL Play-off, 1st leg
20 Aug 2025 • Ülker Stadyumu (Şükrü Saracoğlu), Istanbul • 22:00 TRT (22:00 Kyiv)
Over 2.5
Benfica (0) DNB
*Odds & lineups are dynamic — please re-check before publishing.
Match Preview
Fenerbahçe vs Benfica — UCL Play-off, 1st leg
20 Aug 2025 • Ülker Stadyumu (Şükrü Saracoğlu), Istanbul • 22:00 TRT (22:00 Kyiv)
Volatility: above average
Stadium factor: ↑↑
Overview
Fenerbahçe (José Mourinho) overturned Feyenoord with a 5–2 home win after a 1–2 away loss — fueled by second-half pressure and a raucous crowd.
Benfica (Bruno Lage) calmly beat Nice 2–0 and 2–0, then opened the league with a 1–0 at Estrela.
Recent Form (last 5)
Fenerbahçe
0–0 @Göztepe • 5–2 Feyenoord • 1–2 @Feyenoord • 2–3 @Benfica (Fr) • 4–0 Al Ittihad (Fr)
Latest league outing ended 0–0; Talisca missed a penalty.
Benfica
1–0 @Estrela • 2–0 Nice • 2–0 @Nice • 3–2 Fenerbahçe (Fr) • 1–4 vs Chelsea (CWC)
Two clean sheets vs Nice; goals from Aursnes and Schjelderup.
Tactics & Key Factors
Fenerbahçe (4-2-3-1 / 3-4-2-1)
- Base: Fred + Amrabat to control central channels; Talisca as creative “10”, attacking half-spaces.
- Wings & half-spaces: Szymański as inverted playmaker; overlaps from Semedo / Oosterwolde; early crosses/diagonals to En-Nesyri.
- Context: pronounced home-field surge between 30’–75’ under Mourinho.
Benfica (Lage: 4-2-3-1 / 4-4-2)
- Structure: compact lines without the ball; first phase through João Neves & Orkun Kökçü; Aursnes can tuck inside. Scorers vs Nice: Aursnes & Schjelderup.
- Finishing: Vangelis Pavlidis as primary box target; Anatoliy Trubin provides stability in goal.
- Coach: Bruno Lage back at the helm for 2024/25.
Key Match-ups
- FEN wide play vs BEN compact block: quick switches behind full-backs are Fener’s main edge.
- Neves/Kökçü vs Fred/Amrabat press: first pass & second balls dictate tempo.
- Fener set pieces: highest-EV route if open play is balanced.
iStatica Probability Model
Market guide: 1X2 ≈ 2.55–2.63 / 3.55–3.75 / 2.45–2.60 (slight away lean).
Prediction
BTTS — Yes
Home pressure plus Benfica’s strong second-wave arrivals → high probability of an exchange of goals.
Benfica (0) — DNB
Structural stability and current form; draw covered.
Alternative: Over 2.5 Goals
Aggregate chance creation sits slightly above average in market models.
Model scoreline: 1–1 base case; high-total scenario 1–2.
Probable Line-ups
Fenerbahçe (projected)
XI: Livaković; Semedo, Škriniar, Djiku, Oosterwolde; Fred, Amrabat; Szymański, Talisca, Ünder; En-Nesyri. Minor rotation possible at full-back/goal.
Latest league: 0–0 @Göztepe.
Benfica (projected)
XI: Trubin; Bah, António Silva, Morato, Aursnes; Neves, Kökçü; Schjelderup, Rafa/Di María*, Pavlidis. Aursnes can play narrow winger; *role rotation on right flank.
Scorers vs Nice: Aursnes, Schjelderup.
Odds Snapshot
- 1X2: FEN 2.55–2.63 — D 3.55–3.75 — BEN 2.45–2.60
- BTTS Yes: ~1.75–1.85 • Over 2.5: ~1.65–1.80 • BEN (0) DNB: ~1.80–2.00
*Odds & line-ups are dynamic and differ by region/book — confirm before publishing.
