AC Milan vs Cremonese — Serie A. Clear home-favourite script: controlled rhythm, half-space progressions, and set-piece edge. Baseline 2–0; value on Milan -1.0 (AH), BTTS No, and Under 3.5.
🇮🇹 AC Milan vs Cremonese — Serie A
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🧭 Match Overview
Milan’s control via half-spaces and set-plays vs Cremonese’s rare transitions. Hosts suppress chances well at home.
📈 Current Form & Context
- Milan: stable xThreat at home; strong set-piece output.
- Cremonese: limited creation vs elite pressing; rely on counters.
♟️ Tactical View
- Milan 4-3-3/4-2-3-1 with inverted FB; cut-backs.
- Cremonese 4-4-2 compact; early balls behind line.
🧮 Probability Model (90’)
Milan (W)
70%
Draw
18%
Cremonese (W)
12%
Totals: Over 2.5 — 56%; BTTS No — 55%. Baseline: 2–0.
🎯 Picks / Targets
🔴 Milan AH -1.0
target ≥1.68–1.70Push at 1-goal win
🚫 BTTS — No
target ≥1.90–1.95Hosts’ suppression
🧊 Under 3.5
target ≥1.60Covers 3–0 script
💹 Market Snapshot
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