Match Preview: Rijeka host PAOK in a cagey first leg at Rujevica. Expect a compact game state, heavy value on set pieces, and a slight away lean.
Picks: Under 2.5; PAOK (0) DNB; BTTS — No (lean).
🇭🇷 Rijeka vs PAOK — UEL Play-off, 1st leg
Thu, 21 Aug 2025 • Stadion Rujevica, Rijeka • 18:45 UTC (21:45 Kyiv)
PAOK (0) DNB
BTTS — No (lean)
*Odds & lineups are dynamic — please re-check before publishing.
Match Preview
Rijeka vs PAOK — UEFA Europa League Play-off (1st leg)
Stadion Rujevica, Rijeka • Thursday, 21 Aug 2025 • Kick-off 18:45 UTC (21:45 Kyiv)
Volatility: controlled
Set-piece value: ↑
Overview
Rijeka lean on compactness, quick diagonal releases, and dead-ball pressure to tilt xG at home.
PAOK arrive with European experience, a stable defensive block, and late-phase control to manage game states away.
Tactics & Key Factors
Rijeka
- Shape: 4-2-3-1, narrow mid-block, trap wide to force crosses.
- Threats: outswing corners, far-post overloads, fast counters from the strong side.
- Risk: sustained defending → set-piece volume against.
PAOK
- Structure: 4-3-3/4-2-3-1 with strong half-space occupation; full-backs advance selectively.
- Plan: suppress central entries, recycle calmly, attack cut-backs and second-phase shots.
- Risk: concede territory if first pass is pressed; must avoid cheap fouls near the box.
Key Match-ups
- Rijeka set pieces vs PAOK aerial unit: repeat restarts decide chance volume.
- Wide channels: hosts’ diagonals vs visitors’ full-back positioning.
- Game management 70’+: PAOK’s late control vs Rijeka’s energy and crowd push.
iStatica Probability Model
Market guide: 1X2 ≈ Rijeka 3.10–3.40 • Draw 3.10–3.30 • PAOK 2.20–2.45 • Under 2.5 ~1.65–1.85 • BTTS No ~1.80–2.00 • PAOK (0) DNB ~1.60–1.75
Prediction
Under 2.5 Goals
Both sides trend to controlled first legs; chance volume likely capped by compact blocks.
PAOK (0) — DNB
Slight away edge on structure and late-game control; draw protection in a tight tie.
Alternative: BTTS — No
Correlates with the total in a low-event script.
Model scoreline: 0–1 or 0–0.
Probable Line-ups (to be confirmed)
Rijeka (projected)
XI: GK; RB, CB, CB, LB; DM, DM; RW, AM, LW; ST. Late fitness checks may alter XI.
PAOK (projected)
XI: GK; RB, CB, CB, LB; DM; CM, CM; RW, ST, LW. Rotation possible on the wings.
Odds Snapshot
- 1X2: Rijeka 3.10–3.40 — Draw 3.10–3.30 — PAOK 2.20–2.45
- Totals/Props: Under 2.5 ~1.65–1.85 • BTTS No ~1.80–2.00 • PAOK (0) DNB ~1.60–1.75
*Ranges illustrative; confirm with your bookmaker feed before publishing.
