AS Roma vs Bologna — Serie A (MD1), Stadio Olimpico (Rome).
Expect a narrow, lower-tempo opener with set-piece value for Roma and Bologna’s vertical counters. Baseline 1–0; value on Roma DNB (0), Under 2.5, and BTTS No at target prices.
🇮🇹 AS Roma vs Bologna 🇮🇹 — Serie A (MD1)
⭐ Serie A
📅 23 Aug 2025
🧭 Match Overview
Roma’s controlled possession and set-piece variety vs Bologna’s vertical counters under Italiano. Expect a tight opener with long 0–0 phases and elevated restart value.
📈 Current Form & Context
Roma
- Stable exits (3–2 first phase), sustained territory in the final third.
- Strong set-piece design; attack channels via wide overloads and cut-backs.
Bologna
- 4-2-3-1 structure with quick verticality after regains; organized counter-press.
- Chance creation skewed to flanks and early diagonals.
⚡ Bologna transitions
🎯 Narrow margins expected
🩺 Squads & Absences
Roma — expected shape
3-4-2-1/4-2-3-1; confirm Paulo Dybala’s minutes (late fitness call). Set-piece variety remains a lever.
Bologna — expected shape
4-2-3-1; monitor Lewis Ferguson (late test). Flank supply to CF; protect set-play zones.
♟️ Tactical Breakdown
AS Roma
Wide overloads, cut-backs and second-ball pressure; manage counters into full-back channels.
Bologna
Compact block → quick vertical breaks and early crosses; aim to disrupt Roma’s build-up in half-spaces.
🧮 iStatica Probability Model (90’)
Under 2.5 — 56% | Over 2.5 — 44%
BTTS — No 52%
Model incorporates venue, set-piece profiles and availability (Dybala/Ferguson). Expect a narrow, low-total game unless the deadlock breaks early.
🎯 iStatica Forecast & Bets
Baseline scoreline: 1–0 Roma (alt: 1–1 if early exchanges open the game).
Draw protection; structure + set-plays 💰
Stake guide: 0.6–0.8u on DNB (≥1.62), 0.5–0.6u Under 2.5 (≥1.85), 0.4–0.5u BTTS No (≥1.95). Bet responsibly. 🔒
💹 Market Snapshot — 1X2 & Totals
- 1X2: Roma ~2.15–2.28 | Draw ~3.30–3.55 | Bologna ~3.60–3.75
- Total 2.5: Under ~1.70–1.75 | Over ~2.05–2.20
Shop best prices across books; track closing for CLV evaluation. 📎
